Mexican official: flow of migrants will grow for several more years

By Mark Stevenson

ASSOCIATED PRESS

2:23 p.m. December 2, 2005

MEXICO CITY – The number of Mexicans leaving their country – almost all for the United States – has reached 400,000 per year and will continue to grow for several more years, the head of Mexico's National Population Council said on Friday.

The increase in migration has coincided with the United States increasing security on its southern border.

"The effort to increase control of the (U.S.) border has not reduced migratory flows one little bit," Council Secretary General Elena Zuniga said. "After 15 years, what we have seen is a growth in migration, and growth in a way that is much less safe."

She said increased border controls have largely served to help fuel growth in migrant trafficking organizations.

The migration is fueled mainly by demographic pressure and a lack of jobs in Mexico, Zuniga said. It will eventually turn downward when those pressures ease, mainly through economic growth and reduced birthrates, she said.

"We predict that we will not be able to sustain the growth in migration," because of a drop in birth rates here, she said.

The country's population is currently rising by about one percent per year, but that rate is expected to cool to 0.59 percent per year by 2030, and emigration is expected to fall to about 380,000 per year by 2025.

Zuniga spoke at a U.N. Population Fund conference on migratory issues in Latin America, where experts reported on recent trends in migration.

Arie Hoekman, the population fund's representative in Mexico, said that "lately, we are seeing a greater flow in undocumented migrants with very low educational levels."

Experts at the meeting noted that migration not only affects the lives of the migrants and the countries to which they emigrate, but also their own hometowns, where relatives receive the money they send home.

"In some places, they've stopped working the land, and live off the money (remittances)," Hoekman said.

"There are some inflationary effects, in the sense that there is more money around," he said. "Products become more expensive, and the value of properties in rising in several communities where there are more migrants who maintain close ties to their home towns."